(4 votes, average: 6.5 out of 10)
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It is now more than three weeks since the iPhone went MIA. Clearly the wishful thinking that the sudden unavailability of the first generation iPhone meant an imminent release of the next generation device was just that– wishful thinking. 
It is still hard to believe that Apple would go for so long without selling an iPhone. It isn’t good for trying to reach 10 million sold. They have, however, accomplished a number of things through this dry-spell.
1. They have now guaranteed that no recent iPhone purchasers will be within the standard return period.
2. They have built up an even greater demand for the new device and insured that it will get even more media coverage than it otherwise would have.
3. They have clearly learned from last year’s price-drop debacle. The potential number of outraged customers who wake up to find that their brand-spanking new iPhone is OLD technology has been minimized as much as possible. Sure, there will always be people who complain, but at least now the "newest new" iPhones will at least have been used for a month. Reasonable people are less likely to freak.
All that being noted, however, there remains a bit of a calendaring issue that is yet to be resolved.
If the 3G iPhone is released at the start of WWDC it will have been a full month that Apple has gone without iPhone’s for sale. But while WWDC begins in just over a week, AT&T Wireless’ moratorium on employee vacations doesn’t begin until a full week later. Heck, they haven’t even set a price for the thing yet! HMMMMMM????
It just doesn’t add up.
On the other hand, if the 3G iPhone is released on the first day of the AT&T vacation moratorium it will have been almost A MONTH AND A HALF without Apple having iPhones for sale. That leaves only two weeks of iPhone sales in the quarter. That’s a heck of a lot of iPhone’s that Apple needs to sell in, AT MOST, 14 DAYS to keep the quarter from being a total bust. If iPhone’s don’t FLY out the door at an remarkable (impossible?) pace Apple will be on track for a HORRIBLE quarter. Apple may take a long-view of things but the market sure doesn’t. Moreover, IF the iPhone’s DO fly out the door they had better have a HUGE stock of iPhone’s ready to go.
I’m sue there is a master plan- after all Stev-o never flies by the seat of his pants but for the life of me I can’t figure out what it is.
One thought DID occur to me this morning, though.
IF the new iPhone is going to be available from AT&T and Apple on the same day it looks like June 16th is the earliest possible. But what if that isn’t the case? Is it possible that sales of iPhones via Apple retail stores will begin right after Steve’s keynote and THEN a week later it will appear at AT&T?
Think about it. It would give Apple an extra week to sell the new iPhone in the quarter and it would get TONS of people into Apple retail stores, adding to the shimmer of the iPhone "Halo effect".
What do you think? What’s your guess as to the release date of the 3G iPhone?
Tags: iPhone, WWDC, Gen2 iPhone, 3G iPhone, AT&T Wireless
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by BL1, on June 1 2008 @ 6:56 pm
Apple may not be leaving as much revenue on the table as you think. Apple can claim part of the revenue for phones that AT&T, Vodaphone, Orange and all the other partners have in their warehouses ready to go. Apple cannot claim revenue for phones waiting in Apple warehouses or at Apple stores…but they can for ones that have been sold to the partners even if the partners have not sold them to customers yet.
AT&T has probably ordered a “bunch” of 3G phones. If Apple can make them….they can get the revenue.
by BL1, on June 1 2008 @ 7:01 pm
Also, my vote is for June 18 or 19 at all of the current partners in the US and Europe. I would then see Canada, Australia, etc added over the next week or two.
I think the week between the WWDC and the 18th would give time for anticipation to build.
I expect a staggered release over a couple of weeks to allow for manufacturing to catch up to demand and to smooth out the ramp up.
by danc, on June 1 2008 @ 7:18 pm
BL1- thanks- I hadn’t thought of that. Kinda solidifies the idea of some time shortly after the 16th. Should be an interesting month!
by mas90guru, on June 1 2008 @ 8:30 pm
I also think Apple has a really good idea of what their sell rate is on the iPhone. Remember how crazy the demand was leading up to the initial release — and everyone thought there would be shortages….well the shortages never materialized. I think Apple knows that most of the pent up demand could be fulfilled in a couple weeks. I’m also not buying into the “disaster quarter” theory — unless there is some basis in the Apple financials to show that the iPhone is carrying the company. I don’t follow their stock that closely but could swear that the Mac’s are as much (or more) responsible for revenue gains as the phone/ipods.
by IndyJonez, on June 1 2008 @ 11:21 pm
Rumored pricing over at macrumors…
http://www.macrumors.com/2008/05/31/3g-iphone-specs-and-prices/